Mu 2019, dziko lapansi likuwoneka kuti limagwiritsa ntchito chitsulo chosapanga dzimbiri padziko lonse lapansi matani 1.89 biliyoni, pomwe China ikuwoneka kuti imagwiritsa ntchito zitsulo zosapanganika ndi matani 950 miliyoni, zomwe ndi 50% padziko lonse lapansi.Mu 2019, kugwiritsa ntchito chitsulo chosapanga dzimbiri ku China kudakwera kwambiri, ndipo zitsulo zowoneka ngati zopanda pake pa munthu aliyense zidafika 659 kg.Kuchokera ku zochitika zachitukuko za mayiko otukuka ku Ulaya ndi United States, pamene kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa zitsulo zopanda pake pa munthu aliyense kumafika pa 500 kg, mlingo wa mowa udzachepa.Chifukwa chake, zitha kunenedweratu kuti kuchuluka kwa chitsulo cha China kwafika pachimake, kudzalowa nthawi yokhazikika, ndipo pomaliza kufunikako kudzachepa.Mu 2020, kugwiritsidwa ntchito padziko lonse lapansi ndi kutulutsa zitsulo zosapangana kunali matani 1.89 biliyoni ndi matani 1.88 biliyoni motsatana.Chitsulo chosakanizika chopangidwa ndi chitsulo monga chopangira chachikulu chinali pafupifupi matani 1.31 biliyoni, kudya pafupifupi matani 2.33 biliyoni achitsulo, otsika pang'ono kuposa matani 2.4 biliyoni achitsulo mchaka chomwecho.
Pakuwunika kutulutsa kwachitsulo chosapanga dzimbiri komanso kugwiritsa ntchito chitsulo chomalizidwa, kufunikira kwa msika wachitsulo kumatha kuwonekera.Pofuna kuthandiza owerenga kumvetsetsa bwino za ubale wapakati pa atatuwa, pepalali likuwunika mwachidule kuchokera kuzinthu zitatu: kutulutsa zitsulo zapadziko lonse lapansi, kugwiritsa ntchito mowoneka bwino komanso njira yopangira mitengo yachitsulo padziko lonse lapansi.
World crude steel output
Mu 2020, kutulutsa kwachitsulo padziko lonse lapansi kunali matani 1.88 biliyoni.Kutulutsa kwazitsulo za China, India, Japan, United States, Russia ndi South Korea kunali 56.7%, 5.3%, 4.4%, 3.9%, 3.8% ndi 3.6% yazinthu zonse zapadziko lonse motsatana, ndi zitsulo zonse zopanda mafuta. zotuluka m'maiko asanu ndi limodzi zidapanga 77.5% yazotulutsa zonse padziko lapansi.Mu 2020, kutulutsa kwazitsulo padziko lonse lapansi kudakwera ndi 30.8% pachaka.
Kutulutsa kwazitsulo zaku China mu 2020 ndi matani biliyoni 1.065.Pambuyo pothyola matani 100 miliyoni kwa nthawi yoyamba mu 1996, ku China kutulutsa zitsulo zosakayikitsa kunafika matani 490 miliyoni mu 2007, kupitirira kanayi m'zaka 12, ndi kukula kwapakati pa 14.2%.Kuchokera ku 2001 mpaka 2007, chiwerengero cha kukula kwa chaka chinafika pa 21.1%, kufika 27.2% (2004).Pambuyo 2007, anakhudzidwa ndi mavuto azachuma, zoletsa kupanga ndi zinthu zina, mlingo wa kukula kwa China yaiwisi kupanga zitsulo pang'onopang'ono, ndipo ngakhale anasonyeza kukula zoipa mu 2015. Choncho, tingaone kuti mkulu-liwiro siteji ya chitsulo China ndi zitsulo chitukuko chadutsa, tsogolo linanena bungwe kukula ndi yochepa, ndipo padzakhala kukula zoipa.
Kuchokera mchaka cha 2010 mpaka 2020, chiwopsezo chakukula kwa zitsulo zakunja ku India chinali chachiwiri ku China, pomwe chikukula kwapakati pachaka ndi 3.8%;Kutulutsa kwazitsulo zakuda kudaposa matani 100 miliyoni kwa nthawi yoyamba mu 2017, kukhala dziko lachisanu ndi chitsulo chosapanga dzimbiri choposa matani 100 miliyoni m'mbiri, ndikuposa Japan mu 2018, kukhala wachiwiri padziko lonse lapansi.
United States ndi dziko loyamba ndi linanena bungwe pachaka matani 100 miliyoni ya zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri (matani oposa 100 miliyoni ya zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri linakwaniritsidwa kwa nthawi yoyamba mu 1953), kufika linanena bungwe pazipita matani 137 miliyoni mu 1973, kusanja woyamba. padziko lapansi ponena za zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri kuchokera ku 1950 mpaka 1972. Komabe, kuyambira 1982, kutulutsa kwachitsulo ku United States kwachepa, ndipo kutulutsa kwachitsulo mu 2020 ndi matani 72,7 miliyoni okha.
Zowoneka padziko lonse lapansi zitsulo zopanda mafuta
Mu 2019, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwachitsulo padziko lonse lapansi kunali matani 1.89 biliyoni.Kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwachitsulo chosakanizika ku China, India, United States, Japan, South Korea ndi Russia kunali 50%, 5.8%, 5.7%, 3.7%, 2.9% ndi 2.5% ya dziko lonse motsatira.Mu 2019, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwachitsulo padziko lonse lapansi kudakwera ndi 52.7% kuposa 2009, ndikukula kwapakati pachaka ndi 4.3%.
Zomwe zikuoneka kuti China ikugwiritsa ntchito zitsulo zosapanganika mu 2019 zili pafupi ndi matani 1 biliyoni.Pambuyo kuthyola matani miliyoni 100 kwa nthawi yoyamba mu 1993, China zikuoneka kumwa zitsulo zosakongola anafika matani oposa 200 miliyoni mu 2002, ndiyeno analowa nthawi ya kukula mofulumira, kufika matani 570 miliyoni mu 2009, kuwonjezeka kwa 179.2% pa 2002 ndi avareji pachaka kukula kwa 15.8%.Pambuyo pa 2009, chifukwa cha mavuto azachuma komanso kusintha kwachuma, kukula kwa kufunikira kunachepa.China chomwe chikuwoneka ngati chitsulo chosapanga dzimbiri chinawonetsa kukula koyipa mu 2014 ndi 2015, ndikubwerera kukukula kwabwino mu 2016, koma kukula kudachepa m'zaka zaposachedwa.
Zomwe zikuoneka kuti India akugwiritsa ntchito zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri mu 2019 zinali matani 108.86 miliyoni, kupitilira United States ndikukhala wachiwiri padziko lonse lapansi.Mu 2019, ku India komwe kukuwoneka kuti zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri zidakwera ndi 69.1% kuposa 2009, ndikukula kwapakati pachaka ndi 5.4%, kukhala woyamba padziko lonse lapansi nthawi yomweyo.
Dziko la United States ndilo dziko loyamba padziko lonse lapansi limene zitsulo zake zimaoneka kuti zimaposa matani 100 miliyoni, ndipo zimakhala zoyamba padziko lonse kwa zaka zambiri.Kukhudzidwa ndi mavuto azachuma a 2008, kumwa chitsulo chosapanga dzimbiri ku United States kudachepa kwambiri mu 2009, pafupifupi 1/3 m'munsi mwa 2008, matani 69.4 miliyoni okha.Kuyambira 1993, kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwachitsulo ku United States kunali kosakwana matani 100 miliyoni kokha mu 2009 ndi 2010.
Padziko lonse lapansi pakuwoneka kuti amamwa zitsulo zosapangana
Mu 2019, padziko lonse lapansi anthu omwe amamwa zitsulo zosapangana anali 245 kg.Kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri kwa chitsulo chosapanga dzimbiri pamunthu kunali South Korea (1082 kg / munthu).Mayiko ena akuluakulu omwe amadya zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri omwe amamwa kwambiri pamunthu anali China (659 kg / munthu), Japan (550 kg / munthu), Germany (443 kg / munthu), Turkey (332 kg / munthu), Russia (322 kg / munthu). munthu) ndi United States (265 makilogalamu / munthu).
Industrialization ndi njira yomwe anthu amasinthira zinthu zachilengedwe kukhala chuma chamagulu.Pamene chuma cha chikhalidwe cha anthu chikuwonjezeka kufika pamlingo wina ndipo mafakitale akulowa m'nthawi yokhwima, kusintha kwakukulu kudzachitika mu ndondomeko ya zachuma, kugwiritsira ntchito chitsulo chosapanga dzimbiri ndi zinthu zofunika kwambiri zamchere zidzayamba kuchepa, ndipo kuthamanga kwa mphamvu yogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu kudzachepetsanso.Mwachitsanzo, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa zitsulo zopanda pake pa munthu aliyense ku United States kunakhalabe pamlingo wapamwamba m'zaka za m'ma 1970, kufika pamtunda wa 711 kg (1973).Kuyambira pamenepo, kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwachitsulo chosapanga bwino pa munthu aliyense ku United States kunayamba kuchepa, ndi kuchepa kwakukulu kuchokera m’ma 1980 mpaka m’ma 1990.Idagwera pansi (226kg) mu 2009 ndipo idakwera pang'onopang'ono mpaka 330kg mpaka 2019.
Mu 2020, chiwerengero cha anthu a ku India, South America ndi Africa adzakhala 1.37 biliyoni, 650 miliyoni ndi 1.29 biliyoni motero, amene adzakhala malo aakulu kukula kwa zitsulo kufunika m'tsogolo, koma zidzadalira chitukuko cha chuma cha mayiko osiyanasiyana. panthawi imeneyo.
Njira yopangira mitengo yachitsulo padziko lonse lapansi
Dongosolo lamitengo yachitsulo padziko lonse lapansi limaphatikizanso mitengo yanthawi yayitali yolumikizana ndi mitengo yamitengo.Mitengo yolumikizirana kwanthawi yayitali inali njira yofunika kwambiri yopangira mitengo yachitsulo padziko lapansi.Chofunikira chake ndikuti mbali zoperekera ndi zofunika za iron ore zimatseka kuchuluka kwake kapena kugula kuchuluka kudzera m'makontrakitala anthawi yayitali.Mawuwa nthawi zambiri amakhala zaka 5-10, kapena zaka 20-30, koma mtengo wake sunakhazikitsidwe.Kuyambira m'ma 1980, mitengo yamitengo yolumikizirana kwanthawi yayitali yasintha kuchoka pamtengo woyambirira wa FOB kupita pamtengo wodziwika komanso wonyamula panyanja.
Chizoloŵezi cha mitengo yamitengo yamitengo yanthawi yayitali ndikuti mchaka chilichonse chachuma, ogulitsa zitsulo zazikulu padziko lonse lapansi amakambirana ndi makasitomala awo akuluakulu kuti adziwe mtengo wachitsulo wa chaka chamawa.Mtengowo ukadziwika, onse awiri ayenera kuugwiritsa ntchito mkati mwa chaka chimodzi molingana ndi mtengo womwe mwakambirana.Pambuyo pa mgwirizano uliwonse wa chitsulo chofuna chitsulo ndi gulu lirilonse la wopereka chitsulo chogwirizana, zokambiranazo zidzatha, ndipo mtengo wapadziko lonse wachitsulo udzamalizidwa kuyambira pamenepo.Kukambitsirana kumeneku ndiko "kuyamba kutsatira zomwe zikuchitika".Benchmark yamitengo ndi FOB.Kuwonjezeka kwachitsulo chachitsulo chamtundu womwewo padziko lonse lapansi ndi chimodzimodzi, ndiko kuti, "FOB, kuwonjezeka komweko".
Mtengo wachitsulo ku Japan unkalamulira msika wapadziko lonse wachitsulo ndi matani 20 mu 1980 ~ 2001. Pambuyo polowa m'zaka za zana la 21, mafakitale achitsulo ndi zitsulo ku China adakula kwambiri ndipo anayamba kukhala ndi chiyambukiro chofunikira pakupanga ndi kufunikira kwa chitsulo chapadziko lonse lapansi. .kupanga zitsulo zachitsulo kunayamba kulephera kukwaniritsa kukula kofulumira kwa chitsulo chapadziko lonse lapansi ndi zitsulo zopanga zitsulo, ndipo mitengo yachitsulo yapadziko lonse inayamba kukwera kwambiri, ndikuyika maziko a "kuchepa" kwa mgwirizano wa nthawi yaitali.
Mu 2008, BHP, vale ndi Rio Tinto adayamba kufunafuna njira zamitengo zomwe zingakomere zokonda zawo.Vale atakambirana za mtengo woyambirira, Rio Tinto adamenyera chiwonjezeko chachikulu yekha, ndipo chitsanzo "chotsatira" chinasweka kwa nthawi yoyamba.Mu 2009, pambuyo poti zitsulo zachitsulo ku Japan ndi South Korea zatsimikizira "mtengo woyambira" ndi akuluakulu atatu oyendetsa migodi, China sanavomereze kuchepa kwa 33%, koma adagwirizana ndi FMG pamtengo wotsika pang'ono.Kuyambira pamenepo, "kuyambira kutsatira zomwe zikuchitika" zidatha mwalamulo, ndipo ndondomeko yamitengo idayamba.
Pakali pano, zitsulo zachitsulo zomwe zatulutsidwa padziko lonse lapansi zikuphatikizapo Platts iodex, TSI index, mbio ndi China iron ore price index (ciopi).Kuyambira 2010, ndondomeko ya Platts yasankhidwa ndi BHP, Vale, FMG ndi Rio Tinto monga maziko amitengo yachitsulo padziko lonse lapansi.Mlozera wa mbio udatulutsidwa ndi British metal herrald mu Meyi 2009, kutengera mtengo wa 62% grade iron ore ku Qingdao port, China (CFR).Mlozera wa TSI udatulutsidwa ndi kampani yaku Britain SBB mu Epulo 2006. Pakalipano, umangogwiritsidwa ntchito ngati maziko othetsera kusinthanitsa kwachitsulo ku Singapore ndi Chicago, ndipo sikukhudza msika wamalonda wachitsulo. ore.Mlozera wamtengo wachitsulo waku China unatulutsidwa limodzi ndi China Iron and Steel Industry Association, China Minmetals Chemical Import and Export Chamber of Commerce and China Metallurgical and Mining Enterprises Association.Idayikidwa muyeso mu Ogasiti 2011. Mlozera wamitengo yachitsulo waku China uli ndi magawo awiri: index yamitengo yachitsulo yapanyumba ndi mitengo yamtengo wapatali yochokera kunja, zonse kutengera mtengo wa Epulo 1994 (points 100).
Mu 2011, mtengo wachitsulo chochokera kunja ku China unadutsa US $190 / toni youma, mbiri yakale, ndipo mtengo wapachaka wa chaka chimenecho unali US $ 162.3 / tani youma.Pambuyo pake, mtengo wazitsulo zotumizidwa kunja ku China unayamba kuchepa chaka ndi chaka, kufika pansi mu 2016, ndi mtengo wapachaka wa US $ 51.4 / toni youma.Pambuyo pa 2016, mtengo wachitsulo chochokera kunja ku China unakula pang'onopang'ono.Pofika 2021, mtengo wapakati wazaka 3, mtengo wapakati wazaka 5 ndi mtengo wapakati wazaka 10 unali 109.1 USD / toni youma, 93.2 USD / tani youma ndi 94.6 USD / toni youma motsatana.